Thomas Harley

Defenceshoots L·DAL
Drafted 2019 · #18 DAL25 yrs191cm · 97kg
NHL points5 seasons
50
NHL high
267
NHL GP
4
leagues
Contract
$10.587Mcap hit· through 2033-34 (8 years left)
UFA in 2034

Development comparables

Every league season translated to a common NHL-equivalent scale and indexed by age. These players’ development paths most resemble Thomas’s across the whole pyramid, not just the NHL.

Curve = best season per age on the NHLe scale (blue = Thomas). Match = inverse distance between overlapping age curves.

Projection · modelnhle-baseline-v1
NHLe ⓘ
16.4
proj. NHL points / 82
range 10.7 to 22.1 · translated from AHL 2022-23

NHLe is a population-level translation, not a forecast; elite outliers exceed it. Factors are published, cited and tunable.

SAT% and shot share · 5v5

2025-26 · 70 GP · 18.8 min/gp
SAT%
47.8%
shot attempts
SAT% adjusted
47.7%
zone starts out
USAT%
47.7%
unblocked
PDO
101.5
100 = neutral
O-zone starts
50.7%
of zone faceoffs

Measured by joining the NHL’s official shift charts to its play-by-play. These describe play while he was on the ice, not his individual skill. All five skaters are credited with the same shot attempt, so a depth player on a team that controls the puck will post strong numbers. Adjusted SAT% drops the ten seconds after every faceoff, so a player handed the offensive zone gets no credit for territory he did not earn. How these are calculated.

Shooting · expected goals

2025-26 · 172 shots
Goals
6
actual
Expected
6.6
sum of chances
Vs expected
-0.6
finishing
Chance quality
0.038
xG per shot
Loading shots…

A model (xg-hgb-iso-v1), not a measurement. Every unblocked shot is scored on where it came from, what type it was and what happened just before it. The model does NOT know who took it, which is the point: the gap between goals and expected goals is what the shooter added beyond the chance itself. Empty-net and blocked attempts are excluded. How this is built.

With or without you (WOWY)

most 5v5 ice together
LinemateMinSAT% withSAT% without
Nils Lundkvist54150.1%46.2%(1417)
Wyatt Johnston43345.7%48.9%(1544)
Jason Robertson43049.1%47.1%(1553)
Mavrik Bourque40252.8%45.6%(1663)
Mikko Rantanen34045.8%48.5%(1759)

Shot share at 5v5 with each linemate, and away from him. The number in brackets is how many attempts the apart figure rests on. Top duos are rarely split up, so that half is often the thin one. Read it as a hint, not a verdict.

Career pyramid

12 stops · tap to expand